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Presilium Private Wealth
Investing & Markets

Financial Planning Fridays #113: How Long Can Stocks Go Up?

After the current bull market's two-year anniversary, this Presilium video looks at what prior bull markets did past the same milestone. Of 27 bull markets since 1928, twelve lasted longer than two years, with strong average and median returns afterward, offering historical context for investors wondering how long stocks can rise.

After the current bull market's two-year anniversary, this Presilium video looks at what prior bull markets did past the same milestone. Of 27 bull markets since 1928, twelve lasted longer than two years, with strong average and median returns afterward, offering historical context for investors wondering how long stocks can rise.

Key takeaways

  • Twelve of 27 bull markets since 1928 lasted longer than two years, so a multi-year run is not unusual historically.
  • Bull markets that passed the two-year mark went on to post strong average and median further returns.
  • Market history offers context for expectations but does not guarantee how the current cycle will unfold.
  • Time in the market, not predicting the cycle's end, drives long-term results.

Hi Friends, How long can stocks continue to go up? Having just marked the 2-year anniversary of the current bull market in stocks, I wanted to share with you what previous bull markets have looked like after they reached the same milestone. Twelve bull markets have lasted longer than two years out of the 27 that occurred since 1928. They had a total average return of 195% and a total median return of 125%. You can see in this chart that we would need an additional gain of 62% to reach the median and 132% to reach the average. They have also lasted an average of 1,450 trading days with the shortest ending on day 516 and the longest lasting more than 3,000 days! We have about another three years before this bull market reaches the median and average length. If we broke the record for the longest bull market shown on the right, we would have another 10 years to go, ending sometime in 2034 when our 8-year-old daughter Emma graduates from high school. So, what does all this mean? We still have no way of knowing how long our current bull market is going to continue, no one does. However, once again, history tells us that we may have a lot more gains ahead of us. When we look at this data it makes us feel optimistic and even further committed to the disciplined and defined investment strategy that we use with our clients. No matter what happens next, we feel well prepared at Presilium and are ready to take advantage of whatever the market and world brings us for our clients. Thank you and we look forward to talking with you next Friday. Be on the lookout for our next Financial Planning Fridays episode. Subscribe to our Youtube Channel so you never miss an episode. Or contact us directly; schedule your 15-minute call with us today.

Written by

Jerry Davidse

Chief Executive Officer · CFP®

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