Financial Planning Fridays #174: Did We Get Our 2025 Market Outlook Right?

Hi friends. As we approach the end of the year, I thought it would be a great time to look back at our 2025 market outlook video and see how our predictions held up. At the start of the year, we focused on three key questions. Let's walk through each one and review what actually happened.

Question one: can stocks continue to perform well after two consecutive years of 20%-plus gains? We said yes, history suggested it was likely. Looking back all the way to 1950, the S&P 500 had been up more than 20% two years in a row eight times, and in six of those cases, the following year was also positive. Well, make that seven out of nine. As of December 11th, every major stock index in our client models is positive for the year.

Question two: should we remain diversified even though the S&P 500 had outperformed most other asset classes for two straight years? Our research showed that concentration in one part of the market rarely lasts forever, and the data overwhelmingly supported staying diversified. That decision paid off in a big way this year. As this chart shows, our major international holdings significantly outperformed the U.S. S&P 500 this year. Historically, leadership rotates, and 2025 was a perfect example. Staying diversified wasn't just a risk-management decision, it added to performance this year.

Question three: are we prepared for a potential market decline in 2025? Our answer going into the year was, we need to be, and we are. And wow, were we tested. After President Trump announced aggressive new tariffs, U.S. markets experienced the largest two-day dollar decline in history, over $6 trillion in value erased. But preparation matters more than prediction. Because our clients were prepared both emotionally and financially, we were able to turn the crisis into an opportunity. We rebalanced into the decline and bought stocks at significant discounts the morning the market bottomed for the year. That move turned fear into opportunity, and the market recovered and went on to reach new all-time highs. Those decisions meaningfully benefited our clients.

So, in summary, we were able to use market history this year to work through three key questions we asked at the start of the year. As Mark Twain said, history doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. We can't know exactly what the market will do next, no one can, but we can use history, data, and discipline to make smarter decisions along the way.

Before we wrap up, I wanted to say thank you. This year, our YouTube channel added more than 3,400 new subscribers, and our videos were watched over 280,000 times. Our mission at Presilium is simple: to help as many families as possible reach their financial goals while giving them an amazing experience along the way. We're very grateful you're here, and we're excited to continue sharing insights, research, and guidance every Friday morning throughout 2026. Thank you, and I look forward to another great year together.