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Presilium Private Wealth
Investing & Markets

The Most Important Investment Chart You Will Ever See

Jerry Davidse walks through a chart comparing historical bull and bear markets, showing that bull markets have been much larger and longer than the bear markets that interrupt them. He explains that the bigger risk for investors is often letting fear during a bear market cause them to miss the recovery that follows.

Jerry Davidse walks through a chart comparing historical bull and bear markets, showing that bull markets have been much larger and longer than the bear markets that interrupt them. He explains that the bigger risk for investors is often letting fear during a bear market cause them to miss the recovery that follows.

Key takeaways

  • Historically, bull markets have been much larger and longer in duration than the bear markets that interrupt them.
  • A key risk for investors is not simply volatility, but letting fear during a bear market cause them to miss the bull market that follows.
  • Market recoveries have historically happened faster than many investors expect, though past performance does not guarantee future results.
  • A well-built financial plan expects volatility, aiming to keep short-term fear from disrupting long-term goals such as retirement or legacy planning.

Hi friends. Most people spend the majority of their investment time worrying about bear markets. But when you step back and look at market history, you'll realize something incredibly important. Bull markets have historically been much larger, much longer, and far more powerful than the bear markets that interrupt them. And this chart is a perfect example of that.

If you look closely, you'll see the gray sections representing bear markets. They absolutely happened. They're uncomfortable. They're scary. And in the moment, they can feel overwhelming. But then look at the green sections. The bull markets are enormous by comparison. Again and again throughout history, markets have recovered, grown, innovated, and moved substantially higher over time.

That matters because one of the biggest risks for investors is not simply experiencing volatility. It's allowing fear during bear markets to cause them to miss the bull markets entirely. Unfortunately, that happens all the time. People get nervous during difficult periods, move to cash, or sell after markets decline, and then never fully get back in, or they reenter much later after a large portion of the recovery has already happened. And historically, the recoveries can happen much faster than most people expect.

The challenge is that bear markets are emotionally loud. The headlines become more drastic. Uncertainty increases. And it suddenly feels like this time is different. But when you study market history, you realize that bear markets have historically been temporary and, in comparison, are much smaller than bull markets. Human progress has not been. Businesses continue to innovate. Technology continues to improve. Productivity continues to grow. And after long periods of time, markets have more than reflected that progress.

That's why successful long-term investing is often less about predicting what happens next and more about having the discipline to stay invested through uncertainty and through those relatively small bear markets. This is also where financial planning becomes so important. A well-built financial plan is designed with the understanding that volatility will happen. We expect market declines from time to time. They're normal. But your plan should be structured so that short-term fear does not interrupt long-term goals, because whether it's retirement, supporting your family, selling a business, creating financial independence, or leaving a legacy, those goals are usually built over decades, not months.

And history shows that the investors who stay patient, diversified, and disciplined are often the ones who benefit most from the full power of the bull markets that follow. So, the next time the markets feel uncertain, I would encourage you to zoom out and remember what this chart shows us. The declines may feel intense in the moment, but long-term progress has historically been far bigger than those temporary setbacks. And that's a very important perspective to hold on to as an investor. Thank you, and I look forward to talking with you next Friday morning.

Written by

Jerry Davidse

Chief Executive Officer · CFP®

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